SEC Week 11: Will there be fireworks in Oxford?

This week features No.11 Texas A&M visiting No.12 Ole Miss, No.1 Georgia going to Tennessee, and No.16 Mississippi State rolling into Auburn. LSU also plays Arkansas, Oh, and struggling Missouri hosts South Carolina, who are full of the joys of the fall after thrashing Florida last week. LSU’s game against Arkansas could also be spicy, although Kentucky’s trip to Vanderbilt assuredly won’t be. Oh, and less said about Alabama’s game against New Mexico State and UF’s game against Samford the better. 

 

  1. No.11 Texas A&M (-2.5 O/U 56 1/2) at Ole Miss:  A few weeks ago, Texas A&M looked utterly inept. They had struggled to beat a poor Colorado team, lost at home to Mississippi State, and the boos were ringing around Kyle Field. They weren’t expected to beat Alabama….but they beat Alabama. Since, then, the Aggies are unbeaten and playing well.  On Saturday night they will roll into Oxford. College Gameday will be there for the first time since Hugh Freeze’s team hosted – and beat – Alabama, headlined by a Katy Perry, who then partied her ass off in an Oxford bar afterwards. Frankly, everyone’s hoping she comes again. Ole Miss’ side on the other hand survived a trip to Neyland Stadium, comfortably beat LSU the next week, and then were thumped by Auburn before beating Liberty last week. The offense is still fun, but the defense needs a little work. On the other hand, A&M’s strong point is their defense. The offense still isn’t a lot to look at, but RB Isaiah Spiller really is. PREDICTION: Fireworks baby! Ole Miss wins by 7 in a glorious game. Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 24.
  2.  No.1 Georgia (-22 O/U 56) at Tennessee: Some Georgia fans have expressed nervousness, bearing in mind the speed of Josh Heupel’s offense and the fact that the Vols puts up 38.2 points per game and puts up 457.7 yards per game. But in the same way that Georgia hasn’t played an offense like Tennessee’s this year, Tennessee hasn’t played a defense like Georgia’s. The reason why Georgia’s offense has been pretty ordinary this year is that they don’t need to be great, because the defense is that good. Although LB Adam Anderson is again going to be missing after handing himself into the police on a rape charge (he maintains innocence), Georgia’s defensive front is all 1-2nd rounders, and they will dominate the line of scrimmage. Oh, and offensively, Zamir White and the rest of the Georgia running backs will control the ball, meaning that this will be the lowest-scoring game of Heupel’s short career. Will be a fun atmosphere in Neyland, though. PREDICTION: Georgia rolls, winning 41-14.
  3.  No.25 Arkansas (-2 1/2 O/U 59) at LSU: We didn’t expect LSU to battle as much as they did against Alabama. In truth, we’d all expected it to be over by half-time. But the Tigers were one Hail Mary away from walking away with one of the most shocking victories in a college football season riddled with shocking victories. Now, they face an Arkansas side that beat Mississippi State on a TD in the final minute. If we look at LSU’s long list of injuries, Arkansas should win this. Mainly by ramming the ball down the Tigers’ throat. On the other hand, LSU still has talent. If Max Johnson is not totally inept and Tyrion Davis-Price can continue from his 107-yard performance against Alabama, LSU could well win this. PREDICTION: Arkansas wins in a close one. Sorry, Coach O. PREDICTION: Arkansas 38, LSU 34.
  4.  Mississippi State at No.17 Auburn (-5 1/2 O/U 50): Mississippi State dropped out of the Top 25 after missing a field goal as time expired against Arkansas, while Auburn – who if we’re honest has beaten nobody of consequence this season – stands at No.17. Last week, Auburn’s offense was inept against Texas A&M, managing 3 points and 229 total yards as the Tigers were thumped 20-3 by the Aggies at Kyle Field. Bo Nix – who went 20/41 for 153 yards and 1 INT – will have more life against MSU. On the other hand MSU – for whom Will Rogers went 38-46 for 417 yards, 4 TDs and 1 INT – has an offense that continues to be sparky. If this is a shoot-out, then Mississippi State will win in the upset. PREDICTION: Clang Clang for the Cowbellers. Mississippi State 30, Auburn 24.
  5. Kentucky (-22 O/U 52 1/2) at Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt showed some spice against Missouri, but that says more about how bad Missouri are rather than how well Vanderbilt played. This week, we don’t see a lot of chance for the Commodores against a Kentucky team that – offensively at least – seems to be clicking again. PREDICTION: Kentucky 41, Vanderbilt 10. 
  6.  South Carolina at Missouri (Pick ‘Em O/U 54 1/2): South Carolina pulled off the most surprising performance of the SEC season when they absolutely rocked Florida 40-17 at Williams-Brice last week. The Gamecocks outgained the Gators 459-340, and up-to-now unknown-QB Jason Brown threw for 175 yards and 2 TDs, partnering nicely with Kevin Harris’ 128 yard performance on the floor. This year, Missouri hasn’t been able to stop ANYBODY. The Tigers rank 123rd in total defense, including 129th out of 130 FBS teams in rushing defense (271 yards/game). And South Carolina – even though it’s fairly medicore rushing-wise itself – should cut through the Tigers’ defense like butter. On the offensive side, Missouri fans love Tyler Badie (Badie’s 10th in the NCAA with 114.4 yards/game), but their irritation at the lack of passing nous has been plain to see. And although South Carolina’s defense is no great shakes, it should be more than a match for Missouri’s ineptitude. PREDICTION: Kevin Harris outduels Tyler Badie, although both go for triple digits. South Carolina 41, Missouri 31. 
  7.  New Mexico State vs No.2 Alabama (-51.5 O/U 57.5): Snore. PREDICTION: Alabama 63, New Mexico State 6.
  8.  Samford at Florida: Yawn/Snore. PREDICTION: Florida 58, Samford 0.