SEC Preview: Kentucky: Better-than-bowl eligible?
If there is one team that’s utterly predictable in the last six years in the SEC, it’s Kentucky.
Only once in the last six years have the Wildcats lost less than 5 games, and only twice in the last six years have the Wildcats won more than six.
They’ve taken advantage of a weak SEC East by consistently beating Missouri (5-1 over that time, Vanderbilt (5-1) and South Carolina (5-1). They aren’t bad against Tennessee (2-4), but against Florida (1-5) and Georgia (0-6), they’ve been hopeless. Against permanent cross-division rival Mississippi State they’ve been moderately successful (3-3), but they’ve not been able to beat Alabama, Auburn, LSU or LSU (although smaller sample sizes). The only team they’ve got a winning record in the SEC West is Arkansas (1-0).
Against hated rival Louisville, they’ve gone 3-3 during that time, too.
But yet because Kentucky was such a laughing stock over the years, Mark Stoops is seen as doing miracles with the Little Bluegrass that Could.
This year, the ‘experts’ predict Kentucky will once again be an OK 7-5 side with an OK SEC 3-3 record.
So what do we think will happen?
OFFENSE
Because of the dreadful offense that Stoops had to work with, he fired OC Eddie Grant and brought in LA Rams assistant Liam Coen.
We’ll see how it works.
Coen has quickly worked out that senior QB Terry Wilson’s was in fact crap and now Penn State transfer Will Levis has been installed as quarterback. Levis underperformed for years on end in State College, but his size and weight have made him virtually unstoppable for short-yardage situations in the Big 10. But his arm? Yeah. It’s OK, but his 59.8% completion record with 3 TDs and 2 INTs says it all. We can’t think he’d set the world alight against better defenses in the SEC. He’s the starter. Joe Gatewood’s transferred in a huff after hearing the news, and Beau Allen will be backing Levis up.
And although excellent O-Lineman Drake Jackson and LT Landon Young are gone (They also lost their O-Line coach John Schlarman, who lost a two-year battle with cancer), Gatewood/Levis/Young have still got future NFL first-rounder Darian Kinnard’s back for another year, and so is senior RG Luke Former.
That O-Line will help blow holes for Stoops’ running backs. Chris Rodriguez ranked 5th in the SEC in yards per game, and his back-up Kavosley Smoke is equally dangerous. Torrance Davis should be interesting after moving from LB to pursue what he was actually recruited for by Stoops. That’s why Gatewood should be a lot of fun in his offense that will be smash-you-in-the-mouth first, ask questions later.
There are wide receivers in Lexington, apparently. Nebraska transfer Wan’Dale Robinson had nearly 1,000 receiving over his two years in Lincoln, and senior WR Josh Ali will be the cornerstones. There’s also Isaiah Epps who’s Coen’s been high-on. But really, it’s going to be about handing the ball off a lot.
DEFENSE
Kentucky’s biggest problem this year is that seven starters have left the program. The ‘D’ is going to have to vastly improve its pass rush last year – an SEC worst 1.4 sacks per game (114th in the country).
But UK’s biggest strength was its secondary, which ate up an SEC-leading 16 interceptions. But the SEC’s second-best INTer, Kelvin Joseph (4 INTs), is gone. So is LB Jamin Davis (3), who was everywhere for Big Blue (he led the ‘Cats in tackles too (102).
Those will be big shoes to fill. Still, both safeties are back in Tyrell Aijan and Yusuf Corker, but will Cedrick Dort and Quandre Moseley be able to fill the shoes. They will be certainly be easier to pass on!
SCHEDULE
Louisiana-Monroe
Missouri
Chattanooga
at South Carolina
Florida
LSU
at Georgia
at Mississippi State
Tennessee
at Vanderbilt Commodores
New Mexico State Aggies (Lexington, Ky.)
at Louisville
The non-conference schedule is pretty easy. They should go 4-0, even if Louisville is a monster rivalry game. It will be the best non-conference game for the Wildcats by a country game – and perhaps their best game all season.
In the SEC East, it wouldn’t be surprising if they once again lose to Georgia and Florida, but beat Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Missouri. Although the Missouri game will be tough on paper because of the offensive genius of Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri’s road record is generally awful (2-7 over the last 2 years).
In the West, they host LSU and travel to Mississippi State. They haven’t won in Starkville since 2008, and Stoops is winless in his 4 games there. This – of course – will be dependent on how Kentucky’s secondary is and how good Leach’s quarterbacks are at throwing the ball to him! They could go 1-1, but are most likely to go 0-2.
In our view, Kentucky fans will be ecstatic with a 8-4 record, but it’s likely to be 7-5 and Wildcats fans will be disappointed with 6-6.
OUR PREDICTION: 7-5.