Previewing all Power-4 Conference Championships
As we said recently, our take on Conference Championships this year is that they don’t matter.
It’s not a way of teams ‘settling it on the field’, it’s a money-grab by the conferences. That’s not to say that the winners won’t be over-the-moon and the losers won’t feel the pain of defeat, but there’s not as much skin in the game.
And in the SEC Championship Game and B1G Championship Games, which feature Georgia-Texas and Oregon-Penn State, this is particularly the case. All teams play the games extra close, then the Top 4 won’t change.
On the other side, it’s jeopardy on steroids in the Big 12 and ACC Championship games though. The loser of the ACC (SMU and Clemson) and Big 12 Championship Games (Iowa State and Arizona State) ain’t getting in.
So, here are the games that we’re watching with interest IN DESCENDING ORDER. So for the first time in a while, the SEC Championship’s at the bottom.
- Big 12 Championship Game (Saturday, Jerryworld, 11am CST): No.15 ARIZONA STATE V No.16 IOWA STATE: First of all, it’s going to be very amusing to see the top of JerryWorld tier completely empty, as the conference moves everyone down to make it more packed than it actually will. Which is strange, because it’s going to be one of the closest games out there. On one side you’ve got Matt Campbell, who gave Iowa State one of the turnaround stories from 2017 onwards. It’s a miracle he’s stayed there as long as he has, but he loves farmland. This year, though, it’s all been about Arizona State. Predicted to finish 9th in the Big 12 (and 3-9), the Sun Devils scorched some earth, finishing 10-2 and in the top quarter of offense and defensive stats. It’s been gloriously fun, led by Cam Scattebo, who’s 5th in the nation in rushing. The two didn’t play each other in the regular season. Iowa State are very solid defensively – particularly in the secondary (3rd in the country behind Texas and Ohio State) – and Arizona State’s best receiver in Jordan Tyson’s not going to play, which is a bummer because he’s fun to watch. Iowa State will therefore be able to park the house in front of a pretty one-dimension offense. On the other side of the ball, the Cyclones have Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who both had 1,000 yard seasons, fed to them by Rocco Becht, who threw for over 3,000 yet no-one really talked about it. PREDICTION: Iowa State in a fun one. Iowa State 48, Arizona State 44.
- ACC Championship Game (Saturday, Charlotte, 7pm CST): No.8 SMU (-2.5) v No.17 CLEMSON: SMU has produced one of the funnest offenses in the country, scoring 39.2 points per game, good for 5th in the country. QB Kevin Jennings continues to produce, and he’s helped by RB Brashard Smith, who’s averaging 6.0 yards per game, and a widespread offense, that while hasn’t got any standouts, is so, so solid. SMU is solid in defense, giving up an ACC-best 19.8 yards/game. On the other side, Clemson’s loss to South Carolina and Georgia weren’t bad, but the 33-21 loss to Louisville was horrible. But thanks to Miami’s extraordinarily stupid loss at Syracuse, they’ve got to Charlotte ass-backward. The offense is fun (17th in the country), but weirdly, Dabo’s defense ain’t great (34th). PREDICTION: This won’t be fun watching. Clemson 34, SMU 24.
- BIG CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (Indianapolis, 7pm CST): No.3 Penn State at No.1 Oregon (-3.5): Oregon still has to claim it’s No.1 seed (which it will do if beating Penn State), and Penn State will try and keep it’s No.4 seed by either winning the game or not losing too closely. Oregon’s so, so balanced. The offense puts up 35.2 yards/game, averaging 170.9 yards/game on the floor, with Jordan James (1,166 and 13 TDs) and 277.6 yards per game in the air. But the defense is outrageous. They only gave up around 16 points per game this regular season. But they aren’t totally unbeatable. Ohio State shot itself in the foot. A game in Wisconsin they won by just 3. And they were hardly wonderful at the start of the season. On the other hand, Penn State’s offense was utterly suffocated by Ohio State at home and struggled on the road with USC and Minnesota, and will rely on future first round pick Ty Warren for its offense – unless Drew Allar goes crazy against one of the better defenses in college football. PREDICTION: Oregon and Penn State in a close one – inconsequential as it is. Oregon 35, Penn State 28.
- SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME (Atlanta, 3PM CST): No.5 Georgia v No.2 Texas (-2.5): Texas’ win against Texas A&M in a Tinnitus-causing Kyle Field atmosphere should have been at worst 23-7 if Quin Ewers didn’t do two utterly stupid things when the Longhorns looked odds-on to score, while Georgia struggled to win at home against Georgia Tech. Both sides have fantastic depth, but we again worry about how solid both quarterbacks are. Texas might be the more balanced of the two – Georgia is still going to have to worry about the combined running legs of Ewers and Arch Manning and the arms of TE Gunnar Helms – but Georgia still have that ‘X Factor’ in the fact that they have beaten Texas before – in Austin – and that they’ll be playing in front of a home crowd in Atlanta. And although this game probably matters a lot less, it should be a fun way to enjoy a Saturday afternoon. PREDICTION: Texas walks away with a SEC title. Texas 27, Georgia 23.