SEC Preview: Alabama, Jimbo back at it again, and LSU’s soul
It’s an interesting week in the SEC.
There’s the Jimbo Fisher v Nick Saban media-fuelled battle. There’s LSU – fresh from getting buckets of crap thrown at it about their defense, visiting a Missouri side that people are believing in. There’s a Georgia team under the microscope about their eliteness hosting Kentucky, who’s gotten some rave reviews. The Lane Train continues against Arkansas. Florida hosts, er, Vanderbilt. And let’s not talk about the Mississippi State v Eastern Michigan game.
Anyway, so here we go:
- No.11 Alabama (-1) at Texas A&M: This is a HUGE game for both parties. Because both sides have a loss, another one would pretty much kill their playoff chances, unless they won the SEC West and won the SEC Championship Game. For all the laughs and jokes about the Crimson Tide this season, Alabama’s unbeaten in the SEC and is finally finding out an identity in running the damn ball. They ran the ball 48 times for 193 yards on Mississippi State, while only giving Jalen Milroe 13 opportunities to throw (he went 10-13 for 164 yards, by the way). On the other side, Texas A&M, who spent a lot of the offseason as a bit of a joke because of the amount of defections from the team, have been excellent (bar their second half performance against Miami), and have looked elite at receiver and in defense. Max Johnson – now the No.1 starter – went 17-28 for 210 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT in the brutalization of Arkansas (Le’veon Moss also ran for 107 more). Moss has track speed, and that’s going to test Alabama’s D all night long. There’s also Evan Stewart, who’s the going to be the best receiver. His match-up against Kool-Aid McKinstry is going to be fun to watch all night long. PREDICTION: This will go to the wire, although it might be lower-scoring than expected on what will be Texas’ first gorgeous weekend (weather-wise) in six months. Texas A&M 28, Alabama 26.
- No.23 LSU (-5) at No.21 Missouri: LSU’s defense last week was atrocious. We know this because they gave up 706 total yards, wafting more than the Yankees during the Summer of Baseball. But the headlines could have been different if Jayden Daniels’ pass had been caught. You know why? Because Ole Miss’ defense was lousy, too. But regardless of balls bouncing off hands, the fact is this: LSU’s 3-2 start to the season means that their play-off chances are pretty much over. And quite rightly, LSU fans are steamed about it. On the other side, Missouri fans are very excited. The team’s 5-0, has a ranked win against Kansas State, and everything’s rosy. Brady Cook – a pretty terrible QB last season – has been nothing short of brilliant. Luther Burden leads the country in receptions and is No.2 in receiving yards, and Theo Wease – the other wide receiver (and former five-star) – has gone off too. And the defense is much-improved. But there is an ‘X’ factor – and this is from LSU’s Greg Brooks. Earlier this week, Brooks was diagnosed with a very rare form of brain cancer (it only affects 350-500 people per year). The stickers have gone on the helmets. And so while LSU might not be playing for something blingy this season, they are certainly playing for someone. And that’s going to be difficult for one group of Tigers to face. PREDICTION: LSU wins in an absolute classic. LSU 45, Missouri 41.
- No.20 Kentucky at No.1 Georgia (-14.5): Georgia came back to beat a not-very-good Auburn team 27-20 in a raucous atmosphere, and a lot of people are now worried about how Georgia actually is. They tried to put 2-and-2 together, thinking that the 219 yards rushing given up by the Bulldogs meant that they would be dominated by Kentucky’s Ray Davis, who ran for 280 yards and 3 TDs against Florida the same day. But Auburn hurt Georgia with their designed QB runs. The straight-up-the-middle rushes were pretty quiet (I mean, Payton Thorne was Auburn’s biggest rusher with 92!). If Georgia stacks the box – which we think they will – then Kentucky’s going to depend on Devin Leary, who’s been legitimately bad this season. He’s only completed 57.7% of his passes (second last in the SEC), and in all the other categories, he’s been worse-than-medicore. On Georgia’s side it’s fairly simple: Carson Beck to Brock Bowers. Try and stop them. PREDICTION: Georgia to curb-stomp. Georgia 38, Kentucky 10.
- Arkansas at Ole Miss (-11.5): Arkansas has an awfully bad offense. 103rd in the country and last in the SEC in offensive yards/play, the Razorbacks simply can’t get anything going. KJ Jefferson isn’t a factor offensively – but things might improve if Raheim Sanders manages to fully get the rust off against a pretty awful Ole Miss defense, which gives up 145 yards per game on the floor. While people want to jabber about how terrible LSU was last Saturday, Ole Miss still gave up 637 yards (and 49 points), and nearly lost the game. Look, Jaxson Dart is for real. Quinshon Judkins is for real. Tre Harris is great too. But their defense is laughably bad. PREDICTION: Closer than most think. Ole Miss 38, Arkansas 33.
- Vanderbilt at Florida (-38.5): Both sides just aren’t that great. They aren’t too far away against good sides in total offense and total defense. Vanderbilt has put up points against bad sides or when things look totally hopeless (see the rush of points at the end of the Kentucky game), but all-in-all, it’s a total frustration. The fanbase isn’t angry. It’s just sad. And then there’s Florida, who are utterly medicore, if not ugly. We know this because the week after they beat Tennessee in a great game, they beat Charlotte 22-7. This one will be exceptionally ugly. PREDICTION: Florida 31, Vanderbilt 21.
- Western Michigan at Mississippi State (-20.5): Just expect Mississippi State to pass, pass, pass on the nation’s 100th-worst passing defense. That’s about what you should take from this. PREDICTION: Mississippi State 48, Western Michigan 13.