SEC Preview: Is Alabama really an underdog?

This is going to sound incredibly silly, but Alabama may well go into this season as an underdog. Not in many games, but in the National Championship discussion.

For years, there isn’t an Alabama player that’s been especially memorable.

The rock stars  – like Will Anderson Jr or Bryce Young are gone. Jahmyr Gibbs is gone. Henry To’oto’o is gone.  That’s a hell of a lot of talent.

The reason for this is simple: Alabama was meant to be everything when Young and Gibbs were anchoring the offense and Anderson, Demarco Hellams, Brian Branch and To’oto’o were anchoring the defense.

Instead they lost the 2021 National Championship Game and didn’t even get to the 2022 Play-Off, despite only losing to LSU and Tennessee by a combined four points.

Right now, there are a ton of questions, and we’re wondering if David Pollack was right when he said that Georgia had taken over college football at the National Championship Game right in front of Saban himself.

Last year, Alabama had the best recruiting class in 2023, pulling in seven five-stars and 19 four-stars. The year they came second with four more five stars and 19 four-stars.

But there’s been turnover, and that will hurt. Bill O’Brien has gone back to the NFL as OC of the New England Patriots. He’s been taken over by former Notre Dame OC Tommy Rees, who’s offenses hardly lit up the world in South Bend (although now he’ll have far better weapons!). Saban also brought in Kevin Steele, who’s replaced Pete Golding (gone to Ole Miss as DC) and Charles Kelly (now DC at Colorado).

WHO’S GONE

Alabama lost TEN players to the NFL Draft, with Young, Anderson and Gibbs the headliners, and Branch going 2nd round.

That’s a lot of talent to replace.

Also, OL Javion Cohen, who was second team all-SEC and started 24 games for the Tide over the last 2 years has gone to Miami. Traeshon Holden, who had 331 yards and 6 TDs left to Oregon (he’s since been dismissed for [get this] unlawful use of a weapon, menacing, and coercion) and JoJo Earle’s (155 yards, 2 TDs) gone to TCU. Speedy returner Aaron Anderson will suit up for LSU.

WHO’S ARRIVED

Saban’s transfers are normally fairly sparse but very effective.

The Crimson Tide added former Notre Dame starter Tyler Buchner, who Rees knows well from his time in South Bend. Buchner was fairly horrible in 2023 for the games he started (he was injured for most of it), but being under Rees will only benefit him as he looks to start afresh (we don’t think he’ll start, by the way).

Monster TE CJ Dippre, who had 315 yards and 3 TDs for Maryland is coming to Tuscaloosa. Saban’s already saying nice things about him.

Trezmen Marshall from Georgia should add depth at the linebacker position (albeit against very talented competition) and Jaylen Key (UAB) will do the same at the safety position. He also added JUCO Malik Benson from Hutchinson CC in Kansas.

But weirdly, there are no rock stars. Whether that’s a sign that the good wide receivers in the portal went to other places (Georgia signed Rara Thomas (Mississippi State) and Dominic Lovett (Missouri) will remain to be seen.

THE OFFENSE

We haven’t said this in a long-time, but the quarterback battle seems to be one of confusion rather than a battle to see who’s going to be best. Ty Simpson, Jalen Milroe, Buchner and four-star frosh Dylan Lonergan.

We saw Milroe play – albeit sparsely – last season, and he was extremely ordinary, going 31-53 for 297 yards, 5 TDs and 3 INTs. But what makes him intriguing is that he can run like a deer (last season he averaged 8.5 yards per rush on 31 attempts (263 yards, 1 TD), which should suit a spread-lover down to the ground. Rees already has a TE weapon in Dippre, as well as Robbie Outzs (although he’s more of a run blocker). He’ll have to replace Cameron Latu, one of the team’s best receivers, who’s gone to the NFL.

We look forward to seeing Benson. He was the top-ranked JUCO player in the country, grabbing 54 passes for a MONSTROUS 2,152 yards receiving, which is good in anyone’s book. We expect him to be a sensational WR3 behind Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks, who both had over 600 yards receiving last year. Kobe Prentice and Isaih Bond will also play.

But Saban’s pissed about his wide receivers dropping too many balls (also backed by observers). And it doesn’t sound as though he’s joking, either. There’s been a pattern of them doing that from year to year, and things will need to improve.

Running backs-wise, they should be fine. Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams, who were solid back-ups for Gibbs last year, are back. Watch out for Justice Hayes, the four-star frosh who was the third-best RB in the country, who’s expected to make waves.

THE DEFENSE

Despite all the talent, Alabama’s defense was really rather porous last year. At least it felt it, anyway. They were 35th in rushing defense and 17th in passing defense. And while they made the stops to be the 4th-best defense in the country points-wise, it certainly wasn’t perfect, and at times, was horrible to watch.

The defensive line loses experience in Byron Young and DJ Dale, but there is going to be a lot of talent. Justin Eboigbe will be your man to watch there.

Chris Brasswell and Dallas Turner, the latter who had 4 sacks last year, are going to cause a ton of problems.

In the secondary, Crimson Tide fans will be hoping that things will be a lot better than they were – even if the teams that they play have good quarterbacks. Kool-Aid McKinstry is the best pass-breaker in college football (he had 15 last year), so expect his numbers to go down as the ball is thrown away from him. That means that Malachi Moore, Key and five-star safety – who comes in as the 8th-best player OVERALL Caleb Downs, who’s expected to start immediately.

PREDICTION

Sept 2 Middle Tennessee – W
Sept 9 Texas – W
Sept 16 at USF – W
Sept 23 Ole Miss  – W
Sept 30 at Mississippi State – W
Oct 7 at Texas A&M – W
Oct 14 Arkansas – W
Oct 21 Tennessee – W
Nov 4 LSU  – W
Nov 11 at Kentucky – W
Nov 18 Chattanooga – W
Nov 25 at Auburn – W

PREDICTION: 12-1 (12-1 SEC)

The biggest test of Alabama’s season (and prospective frailty in SEC play) comes second week against Texas. It’s one of the biggest non-conference games of the season. Alabama should have lost that game (as well as Texas A&M a few weeks later!).

If they can get through that, then Alabama runs the table and goes to the SEC Championship Game, where they play (you guessed it!) Georgia, and lose.