Georgia vs Alabama: The SEC Championship Game.

 

We don’t usually trumpet ourselves about stuff that we predicted, but we said that the Dawgs would run the table this season and only come unstuck in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. We didn’t have Texas A&M beating ‘Bama (and all the rest of the craziness that has happened this year), but we DID have – shockingly – Alabama going to Atlanta.

And the play-off perspective? If Georgia wins or loses, it’s still going to the play-off. But if Alabama – a No.4 in the current play-off standings – loses, it’s a 2-loss team and will probably not be playing in January.

 

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So ordinary have a lot of Alabama’s performances been this season (Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida) that in an another world, the Crimson Tide could have finished the season with a 4-4 in-conference record, and looking at a middle-tier bowl game, rather than Saturday’s draw, where they will play for all for a win against the National Championship favorite….as well as their fifth SEC title since 2014.

That’s why Vegas has Georgia a 6.5 point favorite over the Crimson Tide.

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This week, they face a Georgia team who have such a frightening defensive front that gives up only 6.9 points per game– led by Jordan Davis (the heart and soul of the team despite not having the stats that ‘jump out’ at you, because he’s more double-teamed than a Tri-Delt) and linebacker Nakobe Dean (5 sacks, 56 tackles). What’s also so refreshing about the secondary is that they aren’t jazzy when it comes to trying to get an interception. Lewis Cine and Latavious Brini have 16 passes defended between them (both 5th in the SEC).

The Bulldogs are 4th in the nation in sacks with 43, but they munch the QB in the backfield (2nd nationally for 325 yards), while – and sorry to bury this lead- and eye-watering 229.7 yards/game.

BUT ISN’T ALABAMA’S OFFENSE PRETTY GOOD?

Wrong. Young’s mobility and ability to find a loose wide receiver has helped him to a tidy 3,901 yards and 40 TDs. And as mobile and that defensive front is, Young should be able to move around just enough to get the ball up and over to his speedsters Jameson Williams and John Metchie. Williams – a transfer from Ohio State – has been the standout receiver in Tuscaloosa this year (1261 yards, 13 TDs), and one of the best in college football. At least a couple of times. And Williams is going to play the whole of the game, despite getting booted for targeting about Auburn, because it was in the first half of the game.

But the problem for Alabama is that its offensive line is that it simply hasn’t been good, and it is only because of Bryce Young’s athleticism that more haven’t been allowed……And they’ve allowed 35 of them (108th in the country (111th in sack yards), down from 63rd in 2020 and, er, third in 2019).

They’d better be much-improved on Saturday, or Young’s going to be buried six feet under in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium Field Turf by half-time.

So will that mean that we are going to see more of RB Brian Robinson – some people’s tip for the 2021 Heisman? Probably not. Although Robinson leads the SEC in rushing TDs, and has had a 1,000+ rushing yard season, Georgia’s front 7 is simply too strong for it to be a success. Ground-and-pound hasn’t worked for other offenses in the league, and it (probably) won’t work here either.

We can expect Georgia not to go first-second-and-third + Grantham on Alabama, but give the offensive line plenty of looks. An overly-aggressive D against a highly-mobile QB – something that the Bulldogs simply haven’t faced this year – could spell issues for the Bulldogs (which means- obviously- that the second half adjustments should be interesting to watch).

BUT HOW ABOUT….GEORGIA’S OFFENSE?

We’re not going to lie to you. Georgia’s offense is not very interesting to watch. There’s a lot of ground-and-pound, short passing and dullish efficiency that seems so out-of-place in this high-octane world that we live in now both collegiately and professionally.

But it still averages 40.6 points per game – good enough for 6th in the country.

And here’s why: Georgia defense does the heavy lifting. While the opposition’s defense won’t be worried about getting on the field for the first or second or even third time after a three-and-out, sure as hell they are going to be exhausted by their 16th in the fourth quarter. Georgia has given up 159 first downs all season long (good for 2nd in the country, behind Wisconsin), and other offenses average a stunning 3.7 yards per play against them.

This means that if Georgia’s offense gets 14 on its first two drives, a game can be over, leaving Georgia to grind the opposition into the earth.

It helps with having Zamir White and James Cook, who might not look terribly flashy numbers-wise (White has 691 yards and Cook has 581, and both have 10 TDs each), but there’s only so many repeated punches in the face a defense can take. Cook also has over 100 yards to his name as a receiver, giving defensive coordinators double-trouble.

Their best weapon is TE Brock Bowers, who has 652 yards and 10 TDs receiving this season (it’s frightening that he’s only a freshman!) and over 700 yards total. He’s third in the SEC in yards per reception. And yes, he’s a Tight. End.

Bowers’ skill and the consistent drive of the rushing offense has helped Stetson Bennett to keep the offense keep things from blowing up. And Bennett will be helped by the long-awaited return of George Pickens, who is finally back after injuring his knee in the preseason.

SO WHAT’S ALABAMA’S DEFENSE LIKE?

After all the crap that we’ve given Alabama’s offense, you should know that Alabama’s defense is pretty damned good, too. Despite the hatred in Tuscaloosa for DC Pete Golding, the Crimson Tide have only given up 20 points per game, good for 3rd in the SEC (and 20th overall). They are seventh in the country is yards-per-game given up (294.2), led by future Top 5 draft pick Will Anderson, who leads all of college football in tackles for loss (26) and sacks (13). He’s simply filthy. The linebacking combination of Anderson and Henry To’oto’o (86 tackles, 4 sacks) is going to be difficult for any offensive front to deal with – even if they are Georgia’s. It should be the Bobby Fisher vs Russia of chess games between Anderson & Co and Georgia’s offensive line, which has only allowed 8 sacks all season.

We honestly don’t know what to expect – because if we did, we wouldn’t be writing this for you guys.

SO WHO’S GOING TO WIN?

First of all, we think that the speed of Young, Williams and Metchie are going to pose problems for Georgia that they haven’t seen all season. If Young’s arm and the jets of the two WRs can get behind the secondary (the unsung heroes of the Dan Lanning’s dominant ‘D’), then this will get interesting – and fast.

What Georgia does not want to do is try and get into some sort of track meet with Alabama. That could be a surefire way for Kirby Smart to go 0-4 against Nick Saban.

And the way that Georgia’s defense is and how good Alabama’s LBs are, we’re not expecting it.

PREDICTION: Georgia 28, Alabama 23.