SEC Week 4 Preview: Who wins the annual classic at Jerryworld?
I hate neutral site games more than everything else in football.
Personally, I would shove College Gameday up the asses of every person attending Soldier Field, because NFL venues SUCK for college football games. Yes, even you, Charlotte.
But there has been one game through the years that has ALWAYS been entertaining: Texas A&M vs Arkansas. Yes, it may seem on paper that Texas A&M has the rivalry by the short and curlies. Texas A&M has won the last nine games – but since the game went to Jerryworld (as well as the one last year moved because of COVID (sorry we forgot about that one) – there have been three overtime games, and only one blowout.
It’s on a par with the Red River Shoot-Out as fun games in Dallas (sorry, Cowboys fans!) every year.
Anyway, that’s the biggest game on the schedule. So here are the games we’re most interested in:
- No.7 Texas A&M (-5 1/2 O/U 48) vs No. 16 Arkansas – OK, let’s get this straight: Both defenses are for REAL. Texas A&M has hardly given up anything all season, and Arkansas – after a dreadful game against Rice for the most part – has been pretty incredible under Barry Odom’s scheme. A&M is still trying to find itself under Zach Calzada, so expect the Aggies to hammer Isaiah Spiller – probably a Top 3 SEC best running back and live on the back of their D. As for KJ Jefferson, he’s been under-utilized by better than average in passing percentage (61.3%) as the Hogs have pounded Trelon Smith, Raheim Jefferson, and relied a bit on the legs of KJ, himself. This is going to be a war. PREDICTION: Texas A&M in another classic. Texas A&M 28, Arkansas 25.
- LSU (-2 O/U 56) at Mississippi State: Mississippi State hasn’t been great all year long, and nor has LSU. This is what makes the game so enticing to watch. Friends of the SECBlog are fuming about LSU’s offensive line play (although it was vastly improved against Central Michigan (a game that we thought would be closer), but the Tigers will find another potential beast in Mississippi State’s defensive line. LSU has the weapons to cause Mississippi State problems (which we’ve seen plenty of in the last 3 days), but can they sort out their offensive line. Defensively, we think LSU is actually going to be OK. That’s mainly due to the fact that Mississippi State’s offense hasn’t been great, although Makai Polk is going to be someone that Derek Stingley & Co should watch. PREDICTION: LSU gets it done. LSU 41, Mississippi State 28.
- Missouri (-2, O/U 58 1/2) at Boston College – The reason why this is so high is simple: This one could be the closest game of the week, and nearly the most fun. No-one really knows what Boston College are, because they’ve faced three non-conference opponents and smashed all three of them. Missouri lost the only road game it has faced by 7 to Kentucky, but they’ve hardly been great this year – particularly on the defensive side of the ball. But what Missouri DO have is an incredible running back in Tyler Badie, and a more-than-functional QB in Connor Bazelak. On the other hand, they have a very bad secondary who would prefer to make WWE motions instead of actually intercept the dang ball, and the defensive line whiffs more times that the Yankees line-up. On the Boston College, Dennis Grosel has done an admirable job of replacing injured QB Phil Jurkovec, and Missouri’s secondary are going to have to compete with Zav Flowers and Trae Berry, who have 213 and 149 yards apiece receiving. PREDICTION: Missouri squeezes by, winning by 3 in an entertaining game. Missouri 37, Boston College 34.
- Tennessee at No.11 Florida (-19 O/U 63): Three games in, we still don’t have a clue who Tennessee’s quarterback is. However, three games in, we know this for certain: Tennessee’s defense is not wonderful. True, the win over mighty Tennessee Tech papered over a lot of cracks, but the games against Bowling Green and after against Pitt did not. Don’t get us wrong, Tennessee’s offense is going to be quick, and probably score a bunch of points, but it’s difficult to see how the secondary will be able to deal with Jacob Copeland and Xzavier Henderson. What should be interesting is if Tennessee will be able to stop Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. One X Factor: Florida’s very quick QB Anthony Richardson, who some believe should have played instead of Emory Jones….until Jones was very good in the defeat to Alabama. PREDICTION: Gators chomp. For the fifth straight time. Florida 38, Tennessee 21.
- South Carolina vs Kentucky (-5, O/U 48 1/2): So here’s the thing about South Carolina. Despite what the scoreline might suggest, there were reasons for optimism. The return of Luke Doty gave them a chance to throw the ball long, and they won’t face a running defense better than the Georgia one they faced at Sanford on Saturday night. And although the secondary remains a weakness (hardly surprising when two of your best players are in the NFL and almost everyone has transferred). On the other hand, Kentucky has been very unimpressive this year. They were utterly dreadful against Chatanooga and not very convincing the week before against Missouri. For some reason, this defense is not wonderful. Offensively, they have sputtered as DCs have come to the realisation that Will Levis isn’t amazing (he’s thrown 4 INTs so far this year), so they might as well pile in and try and stop Chris Rodriguez (which they haven’t, bearing in mind he’s the No.1 RB in rushing attempts and yards so far this season). Expect the Gamecocks to stack the box once again. PREDICTION: South Carolina with the surprise of the day. Gamecocks 21, Kentucky 17.
- Georgia State at No.3 Auburn (-27 O/U 57): Auburn’s going into a game licking their wounds after the war at Happy Valley last week, and Georgia State is coming back after a 20-9 over Charlotte that should have been mildly encouraging. The problem for Georgia State is that they’ve been blown out by two competent teams – and Auburn is far more competent than the pair of them. Expect Tank Bigsby to run amok against one of the worst running defenses in college football. PREDICTION: Auburn 47, Georgia State 14.
- No.2 Georgia (-35 O/U 53) at Vanderbilt: Georgia’s going to kill ’em. That’s the analysis. PREDICTION: Georgia 42, Vanderbilt 3.
- Southern Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-45 O/U 45): Alabama’s going to kill ’em. That’s the analysis. PREDICTION: Alabama 52, Southern Miss 10.