So who’s going to win the SEC’s bowl games?
It’s SEC Bowl game time on Wednesday, when Florida plays Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.
After that, Mississippi State plays Tulsa on New Year’s Eve in the Armed Forces Bowl. On January 1 it’s Georgia vs Cincinnati, Auburn vs Northwestern, and the College Football Play-Off Semi between Alabama and Notre Dame, with the other CFB semi-final (and we know it’s not the SEC!) between Ohio State and Clemson.
On Jan 2 Kentucky plays NC State, Indiana plays Ole Miss and Texas A&M plays North Carolina.
So far Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and South Carolina have all cancelled their bowl games due to rising COVID-19 cases, and LSU decided to nix theirs following recruiting violations.
So here are our predictions in order of what interests us:
- Wednesday: Florida (-2.5) vs Oklahoma – Cotton Bowl
Despite missing Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Jacob Copeland (75.5% of total receiving yards, 58.5% of total receptions, 34 TDs), Vegas has somehow got Florida as 2.5 point favorites. This is against a vastly improved Oklahoma defenses who can still score in bunches.
Yes, Kyle Trask is a better QB than Spencer Rattler, but Marvin Mims, Theo Wease and Austin Stogner are pretty good, and the running back due of Rhamondre Stevenson and TJ Pledger can also hurt.
Anyway, this should be fun.
Prediction: Oklahoma by 7. Oklahoma 35, Florida 28.
2. Alabama (-20, Over/Under 65.5) vs Notre Dame (CFB Play-Off Semi-Final)
Alabama is amazing on offense. We know this. DeVonta Smith and Mac Jones are both Heisman finalists and Najee Harris finished 5th in voting as the game’s top player. Next year John Metchie will be up there too, we believe. But Notre Dame, unloved after getting their hinds beaten by Clemson, still have weapons. Kyren Williams is a very good running back (he had over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs this year) – even though Clemson effectively stacked the box against him and made Ian Book throw, and you can expect Alabama to do the same. That will leave Ian Book to throw to his array of receivers, but the key man will be Javon McKinley, who had 40 catches at a 17.4 yards/ catch clip. The TD weapon – apart from Williams – is Ben Skowrenek. Book is more mobile than Kyle Trask, and that will play more into Alabama’s worries. They already said that the Irish’s offense “isn’t like anything [we’ve] played this season”. And what’s more, the Irish have nothing to lose.
Alabama on the other hand, is predicted to kill Notre Dame. They’ve got more weapons on them than a Trump rally, highlighted by – you’ve guessed it- Smith, Harris and Metchie. The Irish will have to pick their poison on an offense more potent than the Clemson one that blew them apart last week.
Prediction: Tide Roll, Roll Tide. Alabama 48, Notre Dame 21
3. Indiana (-7.5) vs Ole Miss
Indiana is one of college football’s greatest stories this season, while Ole Miss has been one of college football’s funnest. We don’t know what quite to think of Ole Miss. All we do know is that they are missed their best wide receiving talents in Moore and Yeboah, and Matt Corral is fun but makes stupid mistakes. On the other side, Indiana’s QB Michael Penix – one of the most exciting players at his position in college football – blew out his ACL and was replaced by Jack Tuttle. Indiana’s offensive production plummeted. This is not the same Indiana side that played Ohio State close, folks. Then again, this isn’t the same Ole Miss side that played Alabama close, either.
Prediction: Rebel upset. Ole Miss 45, Indiana 31.
4. Georgia (-6.5, Over/Under 49.5) vs Cincinnati
A Georgia fan texted me after she saw the New Year’s bowl updates and said; “How are we going to do against a pissed off Cincinnati team? Georgia will be missing nine players from the game, but they’ve still got one of the best running backs in the game (Zamir White), a superior QB (JT Daniels), one of the best WRs around (George Pickens) and could be seeing the return of Richard LeCounte, who’s self-caused accident hurt the secondary very badly. Cincinnati are a good side, but the offensive line is going to be overpowered by Georgia.
Prediction: Men bark happily. Georgia 45, Cincinnati 24.
5. Auburn vs Northwestern (-3.5, Over/Under 43.5)
This game will not be about the quarterbacks. Northwestern has an excellent pass defense, and Bo Nix can’t be counted on not to do anything stupid. On the other hand, Northwestern’s offense is laughably non-existent. But Northwestern is going to have its problems against the running game. Ohio State RB Tre Sermon curb-stomped them for over 300 yards in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Tank Bigsby, the excellent Auburn freshman RB, could well have a similar number. But get this: Northwestern can mess up a game against anybody. This will not be pleasant to watch.
Prediction: Yuck. Auburn 28, Northwestern 14.
6. Texas A&M (-5.5 Over/Under 69.5) vs North Carolina
This would be a lot higher had some of North Carolina’s best offensive weapons (two stud RBs in Michael Carter and Javon Williams, who accounted for over 2,000 yards and 28 TDs between them) decided not to declare for the NFL Draft. Texas A&M, on the other hand, will be at full strength, which will be a nightmare for a North Carolina defense who isn’t great. It will be a joy to watch Sam Howell – because it always is – he threw for 3,352 yards, 27 TDs and 6 picks), but again his best receiver, Dyami Brown, isn’t coming back for the game, either.
Kellen Mond’s going to roll, A&M’s going to roll, Isaiah Spiller’s gonna roll, and it’ll be the reason why Texas A&M will get a Top 5 preseason AP vote this year, if not higher.
PREDICTION: Gig ‘Em. Texas A&M 45, North Carolina 20
7. Kentucky (-3.5 Over/Under 52.5) vs NC Statey
NC State are going to feel disrespected facing a Kentucky team that hasn’t been great for a while, and recently fired its OC. Thankfully, they face an offense that’s 36th in passing offense and 98th in rushing offense, which is mediocre. They also give up 416 yards per game, so Terry Wilson should be able to do better than is widely expected. They also give up 163.55 yards per game on the floor, so expect Chris Rodriguez & Co to run wild.
I know that this sounds hateful and everything, but this game’s not an exciting prospect.
PREDICTION: Bluegrass beat Tobacco. Kentucky 21, NC State 14.
8. Mississippi State vs Tulsa (-2.5 Over/Under 47)
I just realized that there’s a game that I’d like to watch even less than Arkansas vs TCU, and it’s this one. Mississippi State put up huge numbers on a piss-poor Missouri side, but Tulsa’s actually pretty feisty. Yes, it was in horrible weather, but they took Cincinnati all the way en route to a 27-24 end-of-game FG loss, and they can mix it up. Mississippi State would lose to Cincinnati if it played them. You can expect Tulsa to run the ball down Mississippi State’s throat with T.K. Wilkerson, Corey Taylor II and Deneric Prince (they average 160.3 yards/game), while Mississippi State’s Will Rogers will be chucking the ball up to Jaden Walley, who’s had five straight 100+ yard games.
PREDICTION: Why not? Tulsa with an upset (and yes, we know they are favored). Tulsa 28, Mississippi State 21.
NON-SEC BOWL GAME PREDICTION: CLEMSON (-7.5 OVER/UNDER 65.5) VS OHIO STATE
OK, so the world is expecting Clemson to kick the crap out of Ohio State after the Buckeyes’ piss-poor performance against Northwestern and Clemson’s excellent performance against Notre Dame. Let me tell you this: This Ohio State is NOT going to be the same team as it was against Northwestern. Justin Fields is an excellent quarterback, and Chris Olave – Ohio State’s top WR – will cause Clemson problems (unless they double team him). Ohio State also has a bruising offensive line, which means Tre Sermon – while he won’t run wild as he did against Northwestern – will be a focal point for Brent Venables’ defense. Fields can also cause trouble with his legs, too.
On the Clemson side, Trevor Lawrence’s performance against Notre Dame assures us that the long-haired one is back, and he’s got Travis Etienne to frighten the Buckeyes on the floor while Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell are as good and spectacular as anyone not named Alabama or Florida. Ohio State is also defensively more experienced than Clemson, and will pressurize Lawrence, making him improvise as the future Jaguars first round pick so well does.
This one will be magical fun.
PREDICTION: Clemson 31, Ohio State 27.