SEC Preview: The SEC’s weirdest ranking match-up?
The good for SEC viewers is that we have a ranked match-up in the SEC this week.
The thing is that we expected it to be one of Auburn, LSU or Tennessee. Not Missouri.
But now the Tigers are 5-3 in the College Football Play-Off Rankings, and they have No.9 Georgia rolling into town.
And despite the Tigers being ranked, Missouri somehow it not thought of as an SEC team. You would think as a team that’s won two SEC East titles – more than Texas A&M – and fought with every SEC member state on the side of the Confederacy in the Civil War, that it would fit in nicely. And yet it doesn’t. Georgia is rolling into Columbia, and Vegas fancy the rejuvenated Dawgs to win by nearly two touchdowns. In other words, they have no hope.
Eli Drinkwitz – I’m sure – will have other ideas. But the first half of the game will have to be without their future NFL second or third rounder, Nick Bolton.
So here are the games in the matter of OUR interest….
- No.9 Georgia (-13 Over/Under 54) at No.25 Missouri
The Tigers are a weird team, going from being gutless to gutsy, from torching a great defense to looking woeful to torching one again. They’ve had 4 games where they have scored 40 or more points….and five where they’ve scored less than twenty. This is to be expected when you’ve got a freshman in Conor Baselak, an indifferent wide receiving corps and if teams crowd the line of scrimmage and stop Larry Roundtree III, they are in trouble. On the other side of the ball, the Missouri defensive group have conceded 35 or more points in five of their games. Yet they have found a way to be 5-3.
Georgia – we think – will remain very aggressive, and will put the world and his wife on the line of scrimmage and force Baselak to score. With that happening, it’s unlikely that Missouri will get up to its average of 28 points per game. On the other side of the ball with JT Daniels at quarterback, Georgia suddenly seems like a different beast. George Pickens is looking like one of the best receivers in the country again, and that’s opening up the game for Zamir White to stomp the ball through opposition.
So will this be fun? Yes. Will this be close? Er…maybe.
PREDICTION: Georgia wins by 18 in one that goes to the fourth quarter and the Dawgs pull away. Georgia 45, Missouri 27.
2. LSU at No.6 Florida (-23 1/2, Over/Under 68)
If there’s one team in college football that we’ve noticed has quit this season, it’s the LSU Fighting Tigers. It’s an extraordinary and sad thing to say this season, but everyone who’s going to be watching the game is going to watch the Florida Gators to try and continue to convince themselves that the Gators have a cat in hell’s chance of beating Alabama next week (Clue: They don’t), really hates LSU and is enjoying the plane crash, or is a gambler watching his horse.
Florida might not be great defensively, but LSU doesn’t have a good quarterback or wide receiving corps anymore (freshman Keyshon Boutte is very raw indeed), and the run game is very ordinary (John Emery will see a lot of the ball on Saturday).
LSU is terrible defensively, and Florida has a good quarterback and two first round wide receivers.
Think about how this is going to go. And remember: Dan Mullen doesn’t chill out when his team’s got a big lead.
PREDICTION: Florida, name your score. Florida 55, LSU 14.
3. No.1 Alabama (-32 1/2, Over/Under 68 1/2) at Arkansas
This was going to be a maybe-interesting game until Arkansas’ defense got shelled at Missouri and their best linebacker – Grant Morgan – got injured and won’t play on Saturday. And as good as Hayden Henry and Andrew Parker are, will they be able to get to Mac Jones? I mean, Jones has played with a clean uniform all season long, and will Barry Odom’s defense change that? Probably not.
What Odom will do is that he won’t try and be massive aggressive, and prefer to give Najee Harris 10-12 yards per carry and instead focus on flooding the secondary and stop Jones dropping bombs to DaVonta Smith and John Mechie.
On the other side of the ball, Alabama’s defense has been improving so much and Arkansas still not knowing whether Feliepe Franks or KJ Jefferson will start the game, the big question will be: How can Arkansas keep down the score?
PREDICTION: Bama, Bama, Bama. Alabama by 42. Alabama 63, Arkansas 21
4. Auburn (-6 1/2 Over/Under 49 1/2) at Mississippi State
Auburn’s quarterback is a freelance jazz musician, with crazy ideas of instrument playing which sometimes works out magically and sometimes leaves the audience saying: “Can’t he just play it normally?” The wide receivers are amazingly athletic difference makers but are prone to make basic mistakes like, you know, catching, and no-one can work out what happens with the defense, which is an athletic bunch of cowboys who do well at the OK Corral for one minute and get shredded like the Alamo in the other.
Mississippi State’s war stories have been run like a Pirate, and the ship has found various ways to scuttle itself along this COVID-invested ocean. First it was a resounding victory that made him Captain Jack Sparrow, but by the end of it, the Good Captain Leach looked eaten by the Crocodile. Having lost its country-changing RB in Kylin Hill midway through the season, the team battled it out without succeeding very much through the rest of its journey. And against Georgia, Leach’s little, shorthanded crew came up shorthanded, although got a lot of respect that had been lost.
PREDICTION: Auburn to win in the SEC’s closest game. Auburn by 4. Auburn 41, Mississippi State 37.
5. Tennessee (-14 Over/Under 50 1/2) at Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s going to go into this game shorthanded. Hell, the Commodores have been shorthanded all season, if you bear in mind the opt-outs, transfers, graduations, and the fact that they didn’t fill 83 scholarships. Throw in COVID, and it’s a minor miracle Vanderbilt will make it through the season. They have done admirably to have moments of offensive explosion, but it’s no surprise that the Dores have had to fire Derek Mason to get a bit of start in the wild, wonderful world of SEC coaching.
Tennessee’s season started fine, and the wheels came off after halftime of the Georgia game. Heck, pick any second half this season, and the Volunteers somehow get A LOT worse. The problems for the Vols is similar – their quarterbacking is a practical joke that you wouldn’t wish on the kid who bullied you at school (mine was a guy called Jamie Williams, by the way). The good thing for Tennessee is that they are playing Vanderbilt.
PREDICTION: This is a weirdly fun game. Tennessee 48, Vanderbilt 38