Will Florida overcome Georgia at the Cocktail Party? Week 7 SEC Preview
Dan Mullen is dislikable. He thinks The Swamp should be full during a pandemic because his team lost to Texas A&M. He doesn’t take COVID-19 seriously – and then a ton of his players (as well as himself) got it, and he still hasn’t backtracked on his comments. He starts brawls, then turns up wearing a Darth Vader costume, because his knack of reading the room is exceptionally….bad. Heck, he doesn’t like the NCAA forcing his players to take a day-off on National Voting Day (Oh, and he seems to be OK with his wife giving players a kiss on the lips before games).
But Dan Mullen is a very, very good offensive football coach. He promoted a walk-on to start at quarterback last season, and has turned him in a Heisman candidate. This teams are exciting to watch. He’s got speed all over the place, and he’s recruited well.
Dan Mullen hired a defensive coordinator who is great at being aggressive on third down, but actually sucks at the outcome. ‘3rd and Grantham’ was used as a compliment by commentators at last week’s game…..when it was quite the opposite. Honestly, the best thing Mullen could do next season is part ways with his long-time friend.
This week it’s Mullen vs Georgia. We took at straw poll on Twitter after the Florida-Missouri fight, and 96% of the 400 voters reckoned that Kirby would kick Mullen’s ass all over Florida. Mullen’s team will face a quarterback who went from zero to hero and is now falling down to ‘near-zero’ levels again, and a secondary that’s had its injuries – one of them self-caused, and an offensive that continues to struggle to know what it is.
Yes, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is going to be fun…..if 30% full. Elsewhere, you’ve got a thin schedule of games, with Tennessee playing at Arkansas, Texas A&M going to South Carolina, and The Pirate Ship at Mississippi State hosting The Ghost Ship at Vanderbilt.
So games in terms of interest:
- No.8 Florida vs No.5 Georgia (-3, Over/Under 52 1/2)
Florida comes into this game pretty excited about overwhelming Missouri at The Swamp, capitalising on some piss-poor decision-making by the Tigers to kick the Tigers all over the park. Kyle Trask seems to keep getting better this season, but he won’t have faced a defensive juggernaut like Georgia. And although you might say: “Oh, but the last time Georgia played an elite team, they got destroyed”, then you forget that Alabama had 3 future first round draft picks going at its secondary, as well as another one coming out at the backfield. And while we love Kyle Trask and think that Kyle Pitts definitely IS a first-round pick and nightmare match-up for any secondary, the person Georgia is really going to have to watch out for is speedster Kadarious Toney, who has had as many receptions at Pitts this season (22), just 50 less receiving yards, and just one less touchdown (6). And weirdly, Toney has gone more under-the-radar. And while you might think that this Mullen offense is throw, throw, throw, throw, throw, look again. He’s fifth in the SEC in pass attempts, fifth in completion percentage, but he’s third in yards per attempt, but despite all that, he’s deadly accurate, leading the SEC in passing touchdowns (18) (helps when you’ve got Kyle Pitts causing such match-up problems in the red zone. You can expect Trask to throw 20-25 times this week – especially if Florida’s rushing game gets silenced. We expect Trask to see a ton of pressure from SEC sacks leader Azeez Ojulari (DID YOU KNOW HE WAS THE SON OF A NIGERIAN PRINCE?) as well as Georgia’s aggressive defensive front, but won’t that play into his hands?
OK, so what is Georgia’s identity on offense? One things for certain: We don’t trust Stetson Bennett IV anymore. He’s thrown five interceptions in the last two games, including 2 in the piss-poor game against Kentucky. We don’t know if George Perkins is going to be back for the Florida game, and there’s a real chance that we see more of Kearis Jackson than we’ve seen all season long. The problem for the Dawgs is that Florida will simply stack the box like they did against Missouri, forcing Bennett to throw. The answer (gasp) may be: JT Daniels or (deeper gasp) D’Wan Mathis, because Bennett isn’t the answer. And while Georgia’s offensive line is going to give him excellent protection and Florida’s defensive front is leaky enough against the run that we’re going to see some holes, our question is this: Can Georgia keep up if this becomes a shoot-out?
PREDICTION: Florida gets its first win against Georgia since 2016. Florida 31, Georgia 24
2. Tennessee (-2 1/2 Over/Under 52 1/2) at Arkansas
After Arkansas was easily outplayed by Texas A&M, we don’t know what to do with the Sam Pitt-train. Tennessee was disastrous at home to Kentucky, but has a week’s rest. The problem for the Volunteers is this: How do you prepare for an offense that doesn’t even know it’s own identity? Feleipe Franks is hardly elite. All the Vols are going to have to do is double-up on Treylon Burks – who is by far and away the Hogs’ biggest threat over the top, and take their chances against a rushing game that’s 10th in the SEC in rushing. Tennessee has the offense to keep control of the ball with Tyson Chandler which we think is what will hapen. The Vols won’t want to give the ball to Jarrett Guarantano, who’s been one of the worst quarterbacks in the SEC in completion percentage (61.5%) and pass yards per attempt (6.77). The Vols’ problems will be how to deal with Grant Morgan (58 tackles, 4 passes defended, 1 sack, 1 INT) and a fearless defensive front. The preseason ‘vaunted’ offensive line has given up 11 sacks (4th-worst in the SEC).
PREDICTION: Arkansas with the ‘upset’. Razorbacks 28, Tennessee 25.
3. No.7 Texas A&M (-8, Over/Under 58 1/2) at South Carolina
After weeks of saying how ordinary Texas A&M’s got, I now have had a wee bit of a ’12th Man Jesus’ moment. Kellen Mond is getting better everyday. The defense is bending but not breaking. The running game is absolutely legit. Against South Carolina, they will face a legit runner in Kevin Harris (535 yard, second-highest rusher in the SEC), and a good wide receiver in Shi Smith (when he actually catches the ball), but not a brilliant quarterback in Collin Hill, who’s medicocre at best. South Carolina will do their best to stop Mond throwing on them, but they are really between a rock and hard place. As for Texas A&M, they’ll stick 6 men in the box, stop Harris rushing, and get the defensive backs to cover Smith.
PREDICTION: A&M Rolls. Texas A&M 41, South Carolina 21.
4. Mississippi State (-19 Over/Under 45 1/2) at Vanderbilt
I can’t think of two more hapless programs at the moment. It’s seriously going to be watching two old men throwing faeces against a wall and trying to work out which one’s going to stick.
PREDICTION: Mississippi 31, Vanderbilt 14.