Who wins College Football’s biggest showdown?
It’s hard not be excited about this weekend’s clash between LSU and Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
College Gameday’s excited. CBS is excited. The SEC is excited. The 100,000 fans who are going to be there are excited, plus the thousands who are going to be tailgating. The College Football Play-Off Committee – who voted LSU No.2 and Alabama as No3 – is excited.
Oh, and Donald Trump’s excited. He just loves college football, man, he’s not there for political capital or anything.
This is going to be a showdown of offenses. Both are sizzling right now. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa have got their offenses on afterburn, helped by explosive future NFL wide receivers on both sides. The defenses? Both have looked a little porous, although with Alabama it’s been the ‘bend but don’t break style’, while LSU’s gone for the Big XII-style “Shoot, we’ll just outscore ’em” style.
To give the stats, LSU has the 4th-best offense in the nation, averaging a tidy 46.8 points per game. Alabama has had 48.6 points per game (ranking second). Alabama has given up 122 points to LSU’s 160, and a lot of people will point that a vast majority of Alabama’s points-concessions happened during junk time when the Tide were already gazillions of points in front.
LSU has faced by far and away the better teams, with a trip to then-Top 10 team Texas followed by monster home games against Florida and Auburn. Alabama can point to winning at Kyle Field, and, er, battles against South Carolina and Tennessee.
Joe Burrow has been talked about as the nation’s leading Heisman contender, throwing for 2,805 yards and 30 TDs this season. He’s been helped by a spread offense that’s finally using some of the best athletes in the land – a stretch away from the previous historical incompetencies that made Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr almost sideshows a few years ago. His weapons – Justin Jefferson (819 yards, 9 TDs) and Ja’Mar Chase (749 yards, 9 TDs) have both been deadly, but Terrance Marshall (333 yards, 7 TDs) and Thaddeus Moss have also contributed heavily. Oh, and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (808 yards, 8 TDs) can fly too.
But all the talk is the injury to Tua, who has banked 2,166 yards and 27 TDs so far this season. The QB injured his ankle against Tennessee and consequently needed ankle surgery. We don’t know what his progress is, but Nick Saban has said he will be a game-time decision. Since Saban isn’t going to tell anyone whether his future NFL first-rounder is OK or not before the biggest clash of the year, we won’t know until he steps on that field.
The biggest problem for LSU, though, is their defense. The last time a team with a semi-competent offense came along, they conceded 28 points and 457 yards (Florida). Before that all was the talk about Joe Burrow’s monster game at Texas (he passed for 471 yards), but people seem to forget that Sam Ehlinger threw on LSU’s ‘vaunted’ secondary for 407. If LSU’s ‘D’ plays as badly as they did in those two games, they are a world of trouble. It’s not going to be helped by the fact that future first rounder Grant Delpit is back, but probably he won’t be 100%. Derek Stingley Jr, one of the best freshman CBs in the nation, is also questionable. If they aren’t 100%, how on earth will they stop Jeremy Jeudy (682 yards, 8 TDs), Henry Ruggs (588 yards, 7 TDs), and Devonta Smith (721 yards, 9 TDs)?
If Tua is hurt, then it’s advantage LSU for sure. Of course, Najee Harris and Brian Robinson will smash the ball down the throat of LSU, hoping to shorten the game and control the ball, helped by the fact that LSU’s starting LB Michael Divinity has left the team for reasons unknown.
PREDICTION: If Tua is healthy, Alabama will win by 10, if not LSU wins by 7.
And the rest?
2) Missouri at No.6 Georgia (-10 1/2) : The Bulldogs jumped back into the National Conversation after beating Florida at the Cocktail Party, while Missouri has gone completely the wrong way after incompetent losses to Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Frankly, we’re surprised that the line’s not higher in Georgia’s favour. If Missouri gets housed this weekend, there will be a ton of pressure on Barry Odom. PREDICTION: Georgia by 17.
3) Vanderbilt at No.10 Florida (-28): Florida wasn’t great against Georgia, and still managed to keep it tight against Georgia. All eyes will be on Florida DC Todd Grantham not to screw it up on third down like he did against Georgia….although against Vanderbilt, this will be far worse opposition. PREDICTION: Florida by 31.
4) App State at South Carolina (-5 1/2): The Gamecocks weren’t impressed against Vanderbilt, but it was never close. Applachian State’s offense has enough to cause anyone problems (they are 13th in the nation in scoring), so this should be more fun than most people think it might be. PREDICTION: South Carolina by 10.
5) Western Kentucky at Arkansas (-1): This is how terrible Arkansas is. They are a 1-point favorite against an offense that is ranked 108th in the country. Sure, their defense is horrible, but how bad can it get? PREDICTION: Arkansas by 10.
6) New Mexico at Ole Miss (-31): Yawn. PREDICTION: Ole Miss by 42.