If Georgia wins out, the Play-Off Committee has problems

The day we’ve all been waiting for is coming on Thursday.

No, it’s not Armageddon our chance to be taken up to heaven. No, it’s not that time that we get the call from Heidi Klum offering to meet her for a date.

It’s better than that. It’s the first release of the College Football Play-Off Committee’s 1-2-3-4.

This Tuesday the Committee rated their 1 to 4 as Ohio State, LSU, Alabama and Penn State. Clemson was 5th, Georgia 6th, followed by Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma and Florida.

In other words, the SEC owned the Top 10.

But if Georgia wins out, this could create a monstrous nightmare for the Committee.

THE IDEAL SCENARIO: Alabama beats LSU comfortably/ LSU beats Alabama comfortably, win rest of games, win SEC title against Georgia.

This means that there will be no argument about having two SEC teams in the College Football Play-Off. Georgia gets its second loss after the South Carolina debacle, and it’s out of the reckoning. One of Alabama and LSU don’t make the play-off either, because they got their asses handed to them and to boot, don’t win their division.

THE LESS-THAN-IDEAL BUT OK SCENARIO: Alabama beats LSU by 3/ LSU beats Alabama by 3, win rest of games, wins SEC title against Georgia. 

The loss by LSU/Alabama isn’t too bad, but the winner’s gone on to win the SEC, so that’s it. Sure, there’s a question mark about whether LSU and Alabama should stay in the College Football reckoning, but Georgia still get its second loss after the South Carolina debacle, so they can relax a bit and leave it to the Weird Guys With The Jackets to fight over the Bulldogs’ presence in a New Year’s Six/ Jan 1 bowl.

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO: Alabama beats LSU by 3/ LSU beats Alabama by 3. Georgia runs the table meets the winner of the LSU and Alabama game in Atlanta and beats them. 

This is a horror show for the Committee. If Alabama beats LSU or vice-versa by a tiny margin, then dropping them below 4 seems silly. After all, they lost to the 1st or 2nd-ranked team in the nation. If LSU loses closely, it’s because they were beaten-up on defense and they are on the road. A close loss actually makes them look pretty good. If Alabama loses, it’s because they had a back-up quarterback. They should be in the play-off, because Tua’s going to be back and they’ve passed an eye test.

And then comes Georgia. Georgia will have two excellent wins against Auburn and Florida, who will both be ranked in the Top 10-15, which is excellent for the resume. A win over LSU or Alabama game would – for the Bulldogs – vault them into the Committee’s eyes into the Top 4. After all, they’d just win the SEC. But here’s the horrific problem: The SEC will have to choose. They aren’t going to choose three teams to go to the College Football Play-Off. And all three teams would have one loss.

The College Football Play-Off Committee aren’t going to leave out the winner of the SEC, but also wouldn’t want to not include the winner of the GAME TO END THEM ALL (2019 version), either. And the loser can’t have done that badly, with an 11-1 season and only losing to the No.1 or No.2 team in the nation. So what in the hell do they do?

 

And for Georgia fans, it might all come down to that awful day in Athens.